Rip simulator · odds read Oct 8, 2026
Packz pack simulator
Open simulated Packz packs using the odds it publishes for its Pokémon and Sports packs, and see the RTP (return to player: what comes back for every dollar in) before and after a session. Values are Packz's own; nothing here is a real pull.
Pack
Expected RTP
Enter a pack price to see the expected RTP.
Ripping
The short version
RTP this session
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Net result
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Best pull
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Detailed breakdown
Spent
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Value pulled
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Expected value
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Cash after buyback
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By band: expected vs what you got
| Band | Odds | Expected pulls | Your pulls | Value pulled |
|---|
Every pull, best first
How 1,000 sessions like this spread out
Median RTP
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Typical range
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Sessions in profit
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Average RTP
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The odds behind this
Transcribed from Pokémon Common Pack's page on Oct 8, 2026. Band values are Packz's own estimated market values: the pack page footnote says card values are estimates based on recent market data and may fluctuate, and the terms (s. 13.1) say estimated market value is determined using recent comparable sales and other market data along with grading and other proprietary factors.
| Band | Value | Chance | Average value | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.50 to $3 | $1.50 to $3.00 | 44% | $2.16 | 21% |
| $3 to $5 | $3.00 to $5.00 | 25.6% | $3.92 | 22% |
| $5 to $7.50 | $5.00 to $7.50 | 19% | $6.17 | 26% |
| $7.50 to $12.50 | $7.50 to $13 | 9.5% | $9.79 | 21% |
| $12.50 to $25 | $13 to $25 | 1.5% | $18 | 6% |
| $25 to $50 | $25 to $50 | 0.3% | $36 | 2% |
| $50 to $100 | $50 to $100 | 0.1% | $72 | 2% |
Source: Pokémon Common Pack on Packz. Each pack page shows an 'Odds Distribution' block: min value, max value, and seven (cards) or six (watches) value ranges each with a percentage. Packz does not name the bands, so labels here are the dollar ranges. The page's embedded React Router loader data stores values in cents and odds in basis points; the rendered table rounds them (25.58% shows as 25.6%, 0.32% as 0.3%). Figures here use the unrounded loader values, which were checked against the rendered table on all 14 Pokemon and all-sport pages (exact match after rounding). Every table sums to 100.00%. All 20 card packs share one shape scaled to price: 44% at 50-70% of price, 25.58% at 70-100%, 19% at 100-150%, 9.5% at 150-250%, 1.5% at 250-500%, 0.32% at 500-1,000%, 0.1% at 1,000-2,000%; the $5 and $10 Pokemon packs use slightly different first bands ($1.50-$3 and $4-$7) and 25.6%/0.3%. The five watch boxes share a six-band shape: 18% at 40-45% of price, 32% at 45-100%, 30% at 100-125%, 13.2% at 125-160%, 4.2% at 160-200%, 2.6% at 200% up to roughly 100x price. Each pack has a single odds profile, id 'base', display name 'Classic'; the data also lists compatible modifier types (discount, free_pack, buyback_floor, odds_boost) and insuranceAllowed=false, so promotional odds boosts may exist but none were visible logged out and none are captured. The six football packs and five watch boxes are status 'active' in the page data and listed in the sitemap, but their odds table did not server-render in the logged-out HTML and the homepage nav only links Sports Packs and Pokemon Packs; their bands come from the embedded loader data of their own public pack pages. Pack descriptions quote value ranges that do not match the odds tables (for example Pokemon Starter says '$75 to $4,000' while its bands run $12.50 to $500; Champion says '$3,000 to $160,000' versus $500 to $20,000). Terms s. 13.6 lets Packz void purchases made on an erroneous price, market value or odds. Only the 14 Pokémon and all-sport packs whose odds table renders on the public pack page are included; the football packs and watch boxes exist in the page's embedded data but don't show an odds table logged out, so they're left out. All card packs share one odds shape scaled to price.
How the simulation works
RTP is return to player: value pulled divided by money spent. Each simulated pack draws one value band using the probabilities Packz publishes, then a value inside that band. Platforms publish the bands but not where values fall inside them, and that gap matters: a $25 to $200 band averages $70 if values spread log-evenly, $112 if evenly, and less if most cards sit near $25. So the expected RTP is shown as a range from bottom-heavy to evenly spread, and the simulation draws log-evenly in between. Real pulls come from a finite card pool and the platform's pricing can move, so treat every number as an estimate at Packz's own valuations, which may differ from what the same card sells for elsewhere.
Packz publishes no buyback rate, so the cash you'd get for a pull is unknown. Shipping fees and taxes aren't modelled.
18+. Pack opening is chance-based spending with real money. Whatever the odds imply at the platform's own values, cash in hand is lower after the buyback haircut, fees and the gap to market prices. Only spend what you can afford to lose. See the Packz listing, other simulators, our guides on EV and buyback and the methodology.